Capitals of big countries like India are supposed to have a Long View of their world. Does Delhi have one? The US government, when presented with a Long View from Washington by Herman Kahn of the Hudson Institute in the early seventies is supposed to have protested “But they employed only three people for the study.” Kahn replied “True, but that was three more than the government employed to look at the future”. Laymen imagine that those in the lofty reaches of government spend time in contemplation, brainstorming where their societies will be two decades hence. Disappointed they are when they learn that politicians drive policy more to ensure re-election four years later, than to shape their environment. They say they have no choice.
This book, the first such attempt, by Menon and Kumar, uses the Net Assessment Method to write the scenarios India will be confronted with in 2020. Policy, they feel, should address scenarios, that will inevitably evolve from myriad complex drivers. Scenarios cannot be created: only God does that. Menon and Kumar follow a transparent method to build, brick by brick, three scenarios that India could face, comparing them to three others evolved by the United States National Intelligence Council and by a group of Indian practitioners. The book closes with a possible Grand Strategy of Foreign Policy that will leave readers in India, and abroad with a clearer understanding of the choices that await a rising India. |
